Ascend Research

The desk's scorecard

Analysis, not advice

Every earnings call we cover, graded in public against the transcript.

Ascend has named 88 falsifiable conditions across 26 graded prints.

45
held
16
broke
27
still open
Where we were wrong
MELIGross margin stabilization

there was some margin compression on the acquiring business...increasing cost of devices because of higher cost of chips

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ELFGAAP operating margin glide path

Q1 adjusted EBITDA was $168 million... Excluding the impact of tariff refunds, our adjusted EBITDA was up 36% year-over-year

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CELHRevenue vs $0.87B consensus

revenue totaled approximately $817.9 million... representing growth of 10.6%

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CELHOrganic CELSIUS-brand NA growth

CELSIUS brand revenue decreased by approximately 11.7% in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the same period last year

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CELHBlended gross margin vs ≥49%

Gross profit margin decreased to 48.1% for the three months ended June 30, 2026 from 51.5%... primarily driven by higher promotional and incentive activity

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SRADSport Rights Step-Down

"Sport rights expenses (including amortization of capitalized sport rights licenses) (137,752)" against revenue of 377,815; "Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of approximately 70 to 100 basis points on a reported basis" · press release

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SRADSport Rights Step-Down

"Sport rights expenses ... 137,752" / "Revenue ... 377,815" and "Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of approximately 70 to 100 basis points on a reported basis" · press release

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SRADWorld Cup Revenue Inflection

Managed Trading Services revenues due to higher turnover and trading margins were offset by lower platform revenues

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SRADSport Rights Step-Down

Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion of approximately 70 to 100 basis points on a reported basis

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SRADSport Rights Step-Down below 33% of revenue

"Sport rights expenses... 137,752" / "Revenue... 377,815" (137,752/377,815 = 36.5%) · press release financial tables

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SOFITech Platform GAAP inflection

Technology Platform segment net revenue of $84.5 million for the second quarter of 2026... Compared to the prior year period, segment revenue decreased 23%

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METAOperating margin ≥40% (38% break line)

"Income from operations $18,775... Operating margin 31%" vs "43%" prior year; "$2.40 billion of charges related to legal proceedings and $1.18 billion of severance expenses" · press release

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METACapex/revenue ratio trending toward <28% FY27-28

We anticipate 2026 capital expenditures... to be in the range of $130-145 billion, narrowed from our prior outlook of $125-145 billion

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ELFRevenue vs. Consensus

On an organic basis, excluding Rhode, our net sales were down approximately 3% this quarter.

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MELIGross margin trajectory

The margin compression reflects our choice to invest in strategic initiatives

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MELIEPS vs. $8.75 consensus

We delivered $611 million of income from operations, representing a 6.9% margin

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After we said…

Every grade we published and what happened next — counts, not a win rate. Early and honest: young rows show the horizon hasn't elapsed yet.

No grades have aged a quarter yet — first returns land ~91 days after a grade.

GradeGraded1q elapsedMedian 1qMedian 2qNext print: held / worsened / recovered
INTACT601 / 2 / 0· 3 no print yet
WOBBLING501 / 0 / 1· 3 no print yet
BROKEN000 / 0 / 0
Every grade, in order
TickerGradedWhat we said → the next print1q2q
ELF2026-08-06INTACTno print yet
MELI2026-08-06WOBBLINGno print yet
AMD2026-08-05INTACTno print yet
SRAD2026-08-03WOBBLINGno print yet
META2026-07-29WOBBLINGno print yet
MU2026-06-26INTACTno print yet
NU2026-05-25INTACTINTACT2026-08-13
SRAD2026-05-24INTACTWOBBLING2026-08-03
CELH2026-05-21INTACTWOBBLING2026-08-06
ELF2026-05-21WOBBLINGINTACT2026-08-05
MELI2026-05-21WOBBLINGWOBBLING2026-08-05

1q and 2q are the price change over the 91 and 182 calendar days after the grade — context on what followed, not a claim that we called it.

Thesis drift, counted only

44 drift changes across subscribers' own theses. Aggregate counts — no ticker, no reader, and no return: drift moves on criteria, never on price.

intact→wobbling18 graded · 0 with a quarter elapsed
one quarter on: not yet elapsed
intact→confirming10 graded · 0 with a quarter elapsed
one quarter on: not yet elapsed
wobbling→intact4 graded · 0 with a quarter elapsed
one quarter on: not yet elapsed
confirming→wobbling3 graded · 0 with a quarter elapsed
one quarter on: not yet elapsed
wobbling→breaking3 graded · 0 with a quarter elapsed
one quarter on: not yet elapsed
wobbling→confirming3 graded · 0 with a quarter elapsed
one quarter on: not yet elapsed
breaking→wobbling1 graded · 0 with a quarter elapsed
one quarter on: not yet elapsed
confirming→intact1 graded · 0 with a quarter elapsed
one quarter on: not yet elapsed
intact→breaking1 graded · 0 with a quarter elapsed
one quarter on: not yet elapsed
Every criterion, where it stands

Every criterion on every active thesis and where it stands — counts, not a score. “In band” means a print addressed it and the result sat inside the band; “not addressed” means the print didn't speak to it; “due later” means it isn't testable yet.

234
criteria
61
confirming
18
breaking
0
in band
81
couldn't see

“Couldn't see” is the honest bucket: 81 criteria wererecorded neutral by an older rule that read a print's silence as a neutral result. Nothing addressed them, so they are not counted as in band. They clear the moment a print speaks to them.

Of which
0
not addressed
11
due later
73
never tested
23
resolves from news

These four overlap the row above on purpose: a confirming criterion the latest print skipped is counted as confirming and as one of the 0 not addressed. Across 35 active theses, aggregate counts only — no reader, no ticker.

The full ledger, by name
How we grade

Before each covered earnings call, the desk names the specific, falsifiable conditions its view depends on. After the print, each is checked against the transcript: held (the condition was met), broke (it failed), or still open(the call didn't address it). We publish before and grade after — every one, in the open.

Educational analysis, not a personalised recommendation.